Satellite imagery is revealing China’s latest territorial expansion playing out in Bhutan. Over the past few years, China has steadily been building villages, roads, and potential military outposts in the north of Bhutan – all on land claimed by both countries.
While this remote, inhospitable region has been disputed for decades, Beijing’s aggressive development and settlement of these areas has raised red flags. It also raises concerns for their powerful neighbor India.
Why expansion in Bhutan concerns India?
China’s constructions appear to be part of a calculated plan to increase leverage and pressure Bhutan into ceding the Doklam Plateau. It is a strategic area in the west that overlooks a narrow chicken neck corridor connecting mainland India to its northeastern states. It is important to note that China has also been claiming a part of Arunachal Pradesh and this will only leverage China’s stance in the region.
In 2017, a standoff in Doklam brought India and China perilously close to armed conflict when Chinese forces attempted to extend a road there. Control of these heights would give China a direct line of sight into India’s critical Siliguri Corridor chokepoint.
China now seems to be using the northern construction as bargaining chips. Officials suggest that they could relinquish claims there if Bhutan accedes to Chinese sovereignty over the more strategically valuable Doklam area.
“China says we will give up our claim to these areas in the north if you give us what we want in the west,” said Robert Barnett, a leading analyst on China-Tibet border issues. “So this is how China creates pressure in negotiation.”
Chinese Build-up
The recent Chinese build-up in Bhutan includes a network of new all-weather roads connecting at least four villages along with buildings. Some experts believe these are military installations or listening posts. China has even gone so far as to relocate civilians to the sparsely populated region of Bhutan, showcasing new settler families proudly displaying portraits of President Xi Jinping.
Chinese invasion of Bhutan is a situation with incredibly high stakes for India, which has a 2007 treaty obligating Bhutan to respect New Delhi’s security needs regarding any border renegotiations. Losing a chokehold over the Siliguri Corridor would be a nightmarish strategic scenario for India.
Meanwhile, Bhutan is in a difficult position – wanting to maintain strong ties to India while not provoking China. Recent diplomacy between Bhutan and China suggests Thimphu may feel it has to make territorial concessions Beijing’s way.
Chinese Side
China, for its part, has claimed its construction is intended only to boost local infrastructure and amenities, dismissing these as having “nothing to do” with its border disputes with Bhutan. Beijing simply wants to improve living conditions for residents, it asserts. However, India undoubtedly views the expansions as an aggressive tactic to secure greater control over the critical Himalayan heights – by whatever means necessary.
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As the geopolitics intensify further, Bhutan finds itself in the uncomfortable middle of a high-stakes real estate tug-of-war between Asia’s two rising superpowers. For India, the prospect of ceding any ground in its Himalayan backyard to China could have devastating long-term consequences.
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