As the 2024 presidential election kicks into high gear, a critical slice of the electorate remains truly up for grabs for both Trump and Biden. It is the 32% of voters who are either undecided, open to a third party candidate, or not fully committed to their current choice. This persuadable bloc could prove decisive in tipping the key for Trump and Biden to beat each other.
So who exactly are these voters that Trump and Biden are vying to sway? Polling data reveals they are a quite different demographic from committed partisans. They skew younger, less white, and are overwhelmingly moderate independents turned off by the partisan rancor.
Trump and Biden Flaws
Their disaffection cuts both ways. Many are dissatisfied with Biden’s struggle to deliver tangible economic gains that improve their daily lives, despite strong macro numbers. “If it was a significant change, we could all see it and feel it,” one Black focus group participant remarked. Biden’s age and fitness for another term are also concerns.
But Trump also gives them pause. His impeachable conduct around the January 6th insurrection has some worried about his commitment to democratic norms. As one swing voter put it, “They don’t particularly like him as a person or think he’s a particularly good role model.”
Overall, Trump and Biden seem to struggle to attract these persuadable voters through hot-button social topics like immigration or abortion. These voter groups seem to crave a centrist choice largely focused on bread-and-butter economic issues over. “Why can’t I have somebody else?” has become a common refrain in focus groups.
This dissatisfaction with Trump and Biden could dampen turnout among a group that is already less enthusiastic about voting than committed partisans. But their sheer numbers, over 30% of the electorate, give them outsized sway in the closest battleground states.
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Possible Impact
In 2020, Biden’s narrow wins in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin that secured his Electoral College victory came down to just 44,000 votes combined. If these persuadable voters had broken even narrowly for Trump, he’d still be president today.
For both Trump and Biden, shoring up support in this critically important demographic will be key to victory in 2024. Winning them over, while inspiring them to show up at the polls, could well decide the next occupant of the White House.
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